The nearly two-week war between Israel and Iran sent shockwaves through global energy markets, although the Nordics remained relatively shielded from the geopolitical fallout.
The nearly two-week war between Israel and Iran sent shockwaves through global energy markets, although the Nordics remained relatively shielded from the geopolitical fallout.
One theme dominated the European energy markets in June: the nearly two-week war between Israel and Iran, which pushed all other developments into the background.
Just days before the initial Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, prices had already begun to climb following US President Donald Trump's hint that a major development could be imminent in the region. Following this statement, markets continued to rise over the next several trading days as the conflict escalated, marked by intense exchanges between the parties and eventual US involvement.
But the balloon soon burst after Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire.
In July's Energy Recap, we take a closer look at how the various markets were impacted by the conflict, which, like many Middle East crises, centred on the potential disruption to oil and gas production and exports from the Persian Gulf region.
While fluctuations were significant in many markets, the Nordic electricity market remained somewhat calmer. It was remarkable to see the Nordics only experience minor upheaval on days when things were getting heated on the other markets. Nordic system futures are less affected by the Middle East conflict than many other markets, as local fundamentals, especially the weather, play a more dominant role. In June, 2026 system futures declined by a modest 3%, while the nearest quarterly future (Q4-26) saw a slight price increase.
