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Sign up for Energy RecapDry and windless start to autumn drives market
September brought further price hikes in the Nordic electricity market, with the most-traded system futures climbing sharply on the back of dry, calm weather and a weakened hydro balance.
After a summer of notable price hikes on the Nordic futures curve, expectations for an autumn correction have so far proved unfounded. Prices climbed even higher through September, with several of the most-traded system futures ending the month at their highest levels in over a year.
The closest quarterly future, which is now Q1-26, cost 68.10 EUR/MWh when the market closed on 25 September, 6% higher than at the start of the month. The annual contract for 2026 also increased by 6% in the same period and cost 44.05 EUR/MWh on 25 September. Compared to three months ago, the two futures are up 18% and 22% respectively, marking an unusually long bull run in a Nordic electricity market that was otherwise calm and largely flat earlier in the year.
It was the dry and windless weather throughout most of September that drove up prices. The Nordic hydro balance is once again in deficit.
In southern Norway in particular, reservoirs are noticeably less full than usual for this time of year. In addition, temperatures under the persistent high-pressure system have been below normal, boosting consumption earlier than usual. Weather conditions have therefore been pivotal to developments, along with limited nuclear output, which operated at only 60–70% of installed capacity during the month. By contrast, continental power and commodity markets have largely avoided the same sharp price rises.
